Science, numerology and critical sense.

The following is taken from the column From other journals in issue no 19/2014 of the Journal of the Norwegian Medical Association (1): «Benford’s Law, also referred to as the First-Digit Law, says that the first digit 1 – 9 for numbers in natural growth processes occurs most frequently for 1 and least frequently for 9. It has long been assumed that births are distributed evenly over the dates of the month, but in an article recently published in the Tilfeldig gang journal, issued by the Norwegian Statistical Association, [T. Dønvold] shows that Benford’s Law applies to births as well [(2, 3) ...] «As a rule, more births occur, the lower the digit sum of the date number, i.e. more births occur when the digit sum equals 1 and fewer when this sum equals 9. In turn, this means that more births occur on the 1st 10th, 19th and 28th of each month, and fewer on the 9th, 18th and 27th. [...] The study may help improve roster planning in maternity wards.» Shortly after the publication of the article, the authors of this piece were gathered at a dinner party, and the conversation quickly turned to this finding. Samantha Salvesen Adams and Liv Ariane Augestad were both confused. They were unfamiliar with Benford’s Law, but thought it strange that births should occur more frequently on dates with a low digit sum. Nor did the original article in Tilfeldig gang (2) provide any convincing explanation. What kind of mechanism could account for a cyclical distribution of births per day over the course of a month, apparently governed by the decimal system? To the possible chagrin of the other dinner guests, we spent a great deal of time clarifying the nature of Benford’s Law, as well as pondering its possible association with births.